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Risk-reward ratio: why accuracy alone doesn't decide profit

The risk-reward ratio compares what a trade could lose with what it could gain.

Risk = Entry − Stop-loss Reward = Target − Entry R:R = Reward ÷ Risk

Example. Buy at ₹1,000, stop at ₹950, target ₹1,100. Risk is ₹50, reward is ₹100 — a 1:2 risk-reward.

Why it matters more than accuracy

Many new traders aim to be right most of the time. But profit depends on win rate and risk-reward together.

With a 1:2 ratio, you can be wrong more often than you are right and still come out ahead:

Win rate Risk-reward needed just to break even
30% about 1:2.3
40% 1:1.5
50% 1:1
60% about 1:0.67

And the reverse: a trader who is right 70% of the time but risks ₹100 to make ₹30 still loses money over time.

Expected value

Putting both together gives the expected value of a trade — what it earns on average if repeated many times:

Expected value = (Win rate × average win) − (Loss rate × average loss)

Example: 40% wins of ₹2,000 and 60% losses of ₹1,000. (0.4 × 2,000) − (0.6 × 1,000) = +₹200 per trade on average — before costs.

Costs matter: brokerage, STT, GST and slippage come off every trade, and they weigh more heavily on small targets and frequent trading.

Using R:R sensibly

  1. The target must be realistic. A 1:5 ratio means nothing if price has a wall of selling just above entry. Targets usually come from levels on the chart, not from the ratio you want.
  2. Your real win rate is the honest input. Track your trades; most traders overestimate how often they are right.
  3. Compare like with like. R:R is set before entry, from the planned stop and target — not adjusted after the trade moves.

Where NEOGreeks helps

The Smart Money Board shows the nearby levels — prior highs and lows, open gaps, demand and supply zones — that traders look at when judging whether a target is realistic or a stop is sensible.

Common questions

What is a good risk-reward ratio?

Many traders look for at least 1:1.5 to 1:2, but the right number depends on your actual win rate. What matters is that win rate and R:R together give a positive expected value after costs.

Can I be profitable with a low win rate?

Yes, if winning trades are larger than losing ones. At a 1:2 ratio, a 40% win rate is profitable before costs.

Should I change my target after entering?

Changing the plan mid-trade is a common source of poor results. Many traders set the stop and target before entry and only trail the stop in their favour.

Educational content only. Not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Disclaimer. These are not BUY or SELL recommendations, nor any form of trading advisory. All information on this site is for educational purposes only. NEOGreeks is not SEBI registered. Trading in securities and derivatives carries a substantial risk of loss.